Thursday, August 7, 2008

Opps CBS Does it Again!


(CBS) Barack Obama leads John McCain 45 percent to 39 percent in the latest CBS News poll. Despite Obama's highly-publicized foreign trip and McCain's recent high-profile advertisements, the findings are unchanged since a CBS News/New York Times poll released last month. The percentage of undecided voters - 13 percent - also remains steady. is that time of the month again when the usual suspects roll out their questionable polls to try to point the race in the direction they want so they can then justify spending even more time in reporting the race as they want claiming the "interest" is there. Of course the ratings numbers aren't there, the profits aren't there and so forth, but... on to the fun.

Total Respondents 1,034
Registered Voters 906 851
Total Republicans 317 284
Total Democrats 381 406
Total Independents 336 344

If anyone knows how to make that look better, you can chime in.

Republicans were originally the most unrepresented group of the sample at 34%. Democrats were 42% of the sample. This is pretty close to most surveys of party identification I have seen in terms of the gap. The problem is of course that when teh decide to weigh the numbers the Republicans become 33% of the sample and Democrats have to be adjusted up to...48% of the sample. This is a 15% point difference in party identification. Nothing supports it. The poll and others like it drag like a boat anchor out of the field of poll results. Republicans were he only group, that it was felt needed the be weighed down.

Interesting as usual.